A Resilient Economy & Rate Cut Expectations
February has proven challenging for bond yields, commencing with a robust employment report that triggered a sell-off. Subsequently, this week, the market experienced substantial positive surprises in both consumer and producer inflation reports. Although this week's consumer inflation release is not the Federal Reserve's preferred index, it still induces volatile swings.
Despite economic data not universally surpassing expectations, notably with Retail Sales, indications suggest that rate hikes are impacting the economy. With that said, the economy is certainly proving to be resilient. The recent data does not alter expectations for the March Federal Reserve meeting, as that was already ruled out.
Financial markets are now grappling with reconciling their expectations for mid-year rate cuts, in contrast to the Federal Reserve's stance of not anticipating any adjustments until later in the year. The upcoming week is characterized by a lighter economic data schedule.
